The great resignation—where is the hired help?
- Thread starter AndyG
- Start date
Yes, a rising tide lifts all boats, but we still have a cruise ship.
Yep. Cycles play a huge part in world events. They're also a major part of my "religion" or "belief system" or "spirituality" or whatever one likes to call that woo-woo stuff.
Have you been to Sedona AZ? Sounds like a place for you
http://awakeningtimes.com/energy-vortex-map-sedonas-energy-vortexes/
Can't say as I have - but it looks interesting!Have you been to Sedona AZ? Sounds like a place for you
http://awakeningtimes.com/energy-vortex-map-sedonas-energy-vortexes/
Sedona is beautiful and a great place to spend a few days.....
The spiritual stuff is interesting as well. It should be on a bucket list for places in the US to see for everyone.
True, but there are many cruise ships - not just the Queen Mary II surrounded by a bunch of fancy fishing boats
Nonsense?
Bullshit?
Sorry, I couldn't resist (and just being playful/smartassy)
I get what you're saying...Definitely put Sedona on a bucket list trip! Don't bother with the Jeep tours, though they are kinda fun since you get a history of the area and some other info of interest as it relates to AZ wilderness and history. I find them too busy and crowded and prefer going at my own pace.
Go see Nina and rent a Jeep from her (https://barlows.us/) and then hit up the four major "site seeing" trails (https://sedonajeeprentals.com/sedona-jeep-trails/). They're all easy and easily done with a stock rig.
I've held the opinion for a long time that although everyone wants to blame corporations, government etc. for their lack of cash in the pocket, that they themselves are as much or more the cause. As I said earlier in the post just going over my daughter and her new husbands finances with them and setting up a budget they found they were spending way too much on things like latte's, fast food, and other crap they don't really need to. To the tune of about 1/4 their income.
We then explored what would happen if they put even half that excess, or 1/8th their income in savings and their mind was blown.
People need to own up for their own actions more in this country IMO. A 50k/year salary goes a lot farther if you don't spend like you have an 80k/year salary. Hell, in many cases it is simple things like still buying a phone or car, but not buying the 'top of the line shizzle' and instead just buying one that fits your actual requirements and is 'good enough'.
Way back in the 90's I was sitting in ag class listening to my teacher talk. He was pointing out that there were more millionaire farmers than any other industry (again pre internet boom). The other thing I remember him saying is that the best advertisement for buying a new combine is when your neighbor buys one.
My daughter's school now has an "adulting" class - which is a temporary replacement for things learned in Home Economics and others that have been cut over the years. Their first assignment was to ask us (parents) about how we budget, what gets priority, etc. She said that she was one of the only kids in school that had parents that had a budget, dedicated savings, dedicated retirement, etc... a sad fact, even if just anecdotal.
It did get me wondering too though; it is easy to look at the frivolous spending (or what some may consider to be frivolous) and point at things related to consumerism, but that is a small part of the picture. I think there is a lot of value in budgeting on a dollar-by-dollar basis, particularly when younger (noting at some point it makes more sense to switch to a %-basis). At worst, it helps people momentarily think about their purchases. At best, it prevents the consumerism cycle that catches many in its grasp...
A long story I'll try to shorten: when we hired a new fiduciary/CPA a few years ago, we did the typical expense/income review, savings/retirement review, etc. Being proud of my spreadsheet tracker at the time, I shared how we were spending a relatively small % of our income on "extras" or "conveniences" and he didn't even care... it broke my little heart. He had a catchy saying that I'm not even going to try and butcher, but essentially his point was that people spend a lot of time looking at the little things that still add up to little things, which leaves them no time to focus on the little things that add up to big things. Healthcare costs for example was an area where we thought we were doing well but were wasting a ton of $$. It is worthy to note that his costs for his services were ~$8500 for the first year, based on our salaries, investments, etc. (it also included tax filings for that year). Sounds pricey and you can buy a lot of $6 lattes with that money, but we ended up saving over $17,000 that year alone in relatively minor changes (and he was also able to convince the IRS that they f*%$#d up!). In the ~4 years of using him (and his costs dropped year by year), we probably saved >$50,000 extra, which in turn has turned into ~$100,000+ in investments.
So while I think "kids" and couples can help save the bottom line by getting coffee at the house and monitoring their spending, the surge of costs of the necessities (food, shelter and healthcare) and its relationship to income is what I think is really adding to the issues that many face nowadays (and again, not just the younger generations).
Take housing for example:
(reference so I can deep dive later: https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/)
And healthcare:
When I was younger, no one batted an eye about getting a coffee and donut at the corner or at Dunkin. I'm sure part of it is perception of previous generations, but I'm thinking a lot of it has to do with available funds, especially when you consider Real Wages hasn't moved in decades, it is easy to see why "debt" has been such a big problem.
And while we're talking about debt, we shouldn't pretend that it only affects younger crowds unable to put the latte down:
(reference so I can deep dive later: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-u-s-household-debt-by-generation/)
TL
R version: there doesn't seem to be a smoking gun other than the rapid rise in the cost of the bare necessities vs their relation to Real Wages...
Consumer Prices Soar 6.2%, Fastest Rate of Inflation Since 1990
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2021/11/10/consumer-prices-soar-6-2/
Generally agree but you have to remember that saving large sums on things like health care etc. don't really apply to young couples who live in the cheapest apartment they can find and have no or little health care (taking the cheapest option their employer provides). Where we can save, and what level of budgeting is necessary is directly impacted by your over all level of wealth and income. Higher income people, yes it makes sense to focus in the really big things, but many people with lower incomes don't have those things to begin with.
Also there is a difference between going and buying your basic coffee, and a latte... with the latter costing significantly more generally. It's about choices.
I have 3 adult kids, we've worked on budgeting with all of them and though they are all in very different places financially, one thing ran true, the largest area they could save was in their random and spur of the moment spending, or the spending on luxuries they really didn't need.
I look at people in the off road world that I know that say they can't afford $150 for a GMRS radio, but they tow their mid sized camper behind their new dually, both of which they are paying large sums of money in payments and interest on and I can't help but think that HOW you spend your money is as important if not more than what things cost or how much you earn. The interest alone most people pay on debt would buy many of the luxuries they want if they just were conscious about only buying what they need and can afford, and not going into debt for stuff they don't truly need. And where does much of that debt come from? For many though not all of course much of that debt is buying stuff they can't really afford because "they want to".
My daughter and her husband both make around $18 per hour, him full time her 3/4 time and through budgeting and managing their money they have found they can live on their own in a decent if not great apartment, support their two cars, their kid, and still save some money for the future. All while still owning smart phones, xbox's etc. They just don't buy new cars, the top of the line phone, and the latest xbox the day it comes out... instead waiting till it is cheaper and on sale. They now eat out only 2x a month, and make coffee at home and the money they save from that equates to several hundred a month in savings which is building an emergency fund for them. They also have zero debt now, and pay their credit cards in full every month. It took 6-8 months to get them on track but it has changed their lives.
My daughter's school now has an "adulting" class - which is a temporary replacement for things learned in Home Economics and others that have been cut over the years. Their first assignment was to ask us (parents) about how we budget, what gets priority, etc. She said that she was one of the only kids in school that had parents that had a budget, dedicated savings, dedicated retirement, etc... a sad fact, even if just anecdotal.
It did get me wondering too though; it is easy to look at the frivolous spending (or what some may consider to be frivolous) and point at things related to consumerism, but that is a small part of the picture. I think there is a lot of value in budgeting on a dollar-by-dollar basis, particularly when younger (noting at some point it makes more sense to switch to a %-basis). At worst, it helps people momentarily think about their purchases. At best, it prevents the consumerism cycle that catches many in its grasp...
A long story I'll try to shorten: when we hired a new fiduciary/CPA a few years ago, we did the typical expense/income review, savings/retirement review, etc. Being proud of my spreadsheet tracker at the time, I shared how we were spending a relatively small % of our income on "extras" or "conveniences" and he didn't even care... it broke my little heart. He had a catchy saying that I'm not even going to try and butcher, but essentially his point was that people spend a lot of time looking at the little things that still add up to little things, which leaves them no time to focus on the little things that add up to big things. Healthcare costs for example was an area where we thought we were doing well but were wasting a ton of $$. It is worthy to note that his costs for his services were ~$8500 for the first year, based on our salaries, investments, etc. (it also included tax filings for that year). Sounds pricey and you can buy a lot of $6 lattes with that money, but we ended up saving over $17,000 that year alone in relatively minor changes (and he was also able to convince the IRS that they f*%$#d up!). In the ~4 years of using him (and his costs dropped year by year), we probably saved >$50,000 extra, which in turn has turned into ~$100,000+ in investments.
So while I think "kids" and couples can help save the bottom line by getting coffee at the house and monitoring their spending, the surge of costs of the necessities (food, shelter and healthcare) and its relationship to income is what I think is really adding to the issues that many face nowadays (and again, not just the younger generations).
Take housing for example:
View attachment 289648
(reference so I can deep dive later: https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/)
And healthcare:
View attachment 289649
When I was younger, no one batted an eye about getting a coffee and donut at the corner or at Dunkin. I'm sure part of it is perception of previous generations, but I'm thinking a lot of it has to do with available funds, especially when you consider Real Wages hasn't moved in decades, it is easy to see why "debt" has been such a big problem.
And while we're talking about debt, we shouldn't pretend that it only affects younger crowds unable to put the latte down:
View attachment 289650
(reference so I can deep dive later: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-u-s-household-debt-by-generation/)
View attachment 289651
TL
Getting closer....
This is good but M1 money supply in the economy is also directly related to asset prices. This latest boom in home prices is connected directly to that and artificially low interest rates. In a couple years the largest owner of single family homes will be a company that sells mutual funds....
Nice work there @DaveF - for both you and them. A lot of people, irrespective of age, have a hard time "giving things up" that they've been accustomed to. What cracks me up is not only the amount of people who buy way more than the need and/or can afford, it's the number of people who think that everyone else needs to do the same (part of the larger issue of consumerism!). When we bought our first house, my sister-in-law lost her mind when we were "only" buying a $181k house (despite being approved for much more). I asked her why would we buy "more" house for just two young newlyweds and a baby and she didn't have a real answer, just said we were going to "want more" (we now have a smaller house with +1 kid and +4 more pets!).
Are people using more liquid assets to purchase homes than previously or are people going more in debt (i.e. taking out larger mortgages) as compared to their income?
Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about the "ZIllow Deals" dissolution? Do you expect that to have any impact on the current market "forecasts"? (this is kinda separate to what we're talking about here but I'm curious).
Expand here some if you would as I don't understand (or maybe I'm over-reading!) the point you're making. How does M1 supply (and thus asset prices) explain the sharp increase in home price to income ratios?Getting closer....
This is good but M1 money supply in the economy is also directly related to asset prices. This latest boom in home prices is connected directly to that and artificially low interest rates. In a couple years the largest owner of single family homes will be a company that sells mutual funds....
Are people using more liquid assets to purchase homes than previously or are people going more in debt (i.e. taking out larger mortgages) as compared to their income?
Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about the "ZIllow Deals" dissolution? Do you expect that to have any impact on the current market "forecasts"? (this is kinda separate to what we're talking about here but I'm curious).
There certainly is plenty of that involved with it too - especially when a "true believer" tries to impose their version of it on everybody else!Nonsense?
Bullshit?
Sorry, I couldn't resist (and just being playful/smartassy)