I found this chart I put together so I could visualize the difference in ratios. It supports your assertion that the difference in first gear (and even 2nd and OD) is comparatively less significant than how the NSG splits the AX's 3-4 into 3-4-5.
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Since buying an AX new means there's no core, I can keep my NSG and rebuild it, then either sell it to recoup some of the expense, or put it back in if I decide I don't like the ratios. Even though that's unlikely, having that as a backup plan gives me some ease about the whole thing.
I also found some info about using a first gear and countershaft to get a 4.3:1 first in an AX15. It's about $600 in new parts (that are discontinued and becoming more and more rare) so I won't be doing that (at least for now) but it's interesting nonetheless. If I had the time and the facilities to do a trans rebuild I would entertain the idea of rebuilding a used AX15 with those parts, but I want to have this done ASAP so I can wheel this summer. It would be great if all the AX15 dealers could say to Aisin hey, we know you made these parts too, can you put those in the AX15 instead?