I'm sure you'd pick it up very quickly. Just like you said earlier...its all about heat control.
Arizona Rock Crawler
- Thread starter starkey480
- Start date
B00mb00m
The Church of Cutting Brakes of Atlas-Front Digs
Supporting Member
Ride of the Month Winner
Whatcha making?
I’m getting a fucking house!!!!!
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Our offer got accepted this morning. This process has been really hard. Believe it or not, it took longer than finding new wheels for the Jeep
Investors are buying everything out here for 40k over asking price. It makes it virtually impossible for young couples who are not cash heavy to get a house. We got very lucky in this situation, the house is owned by an old lady who loves her house. She took immaculate care of it. We wrote her a letter and she decided to turn down the higher offers from investors and sell the house to us because she wanted to see people move in who would love her house like she did. A very rare and fortunate circumstance that I am feeling very grateful for. Here’s to hoping everything closes smoothly.
Congrats on the house!
We did a letter for our first house too, commented on the beer in the fridge and the seller ended up taking our offer. On our next home, we were told we couldnt write a letter because a potential buyer could use that as discrimination if the seller chooses someone else.
Investors here are still paying with cash and upwards of $50k+ over asking. We were fortunate to get a house. A coworker has been looking since November and putting in offers on a weekly basis and is still searching after getting outbid on everything.
I'm fixing the genright mini boatsides. This step is a poor design.
OP
I know tons of people putting in bids over asking on a weekly basis and getting nothing. We are super lucky! I’m not usually one for more government control, but this seems to be a good cause for some policy. The investors are leaving so many people unable to get homes it’s rediculous
Yes they are driving up the prices to beyond ridiculous. The housing market will be one of the first to crumble just like in 07-08. It is going to happen before too much longer. We cannot sustain these prices for very long.
it's infuriating. We ended up giving up on the house search after continually losing bids well over asking price because we were "only" putting 20% down instead of all cash. We ended up finding 4 acres we liked and we're building...I'm just praying inflation and interest rates don't skyrocket up to making it way expensive and then crashing after we close to incinerate all our equity. It's a helpless feeling but I guess we won't be alone.
The first step on all steep slippery slopes that end in ruinous governmental controls all started with a near identical sentiment.
Don't like folks getting shot with guns? That's a very good cause for some policy.
Don't like what folks say? That's a very good cause for some policy.
Don't like MEN and WOMEN competing in separate sports? That's a very good cause for some policy.
The list is endless and the last thing I want the .gov meddling in is capitalistic endeavors that perfectly define capitalism. There is no right to own a home in this country at any price, high or low. Sucks that it sucks right now for you but it will find a more level playing field with some correction before long.
Had you bought right after the last crash, you'd be going "goddamn, what a country, can you believe how little we paid for that piece of shit property that sold for 3 times what we paid for it 2 years ago?"
OP
Obviously no one knows the future but it seems like a reasonable assumption that the 08 bubble won’t repeat itself in the same way. Y’all already know, there was essentially falsely inflated demand in 08 that created the bubble since borrowers were able to get loans well above their means. In todays situation there is real demand and a massive shortage in supply. Partly because the supply chain is so fucked, we can’t build houses fast enough to accommodate all of the potential homebuyers. Once the supply chain stabilizes and the prices get too high, it seems like a good assumption that prices will fall but not at the same rate as they did in 08. Once prices fall a bit and investors slow down their shenanigans in a few years, there will still be yet another influx of buyers who were unable to purchase a home while shit was going crazy and the market was too competitive. That should drive prices back up a bit. It seems like there will be a very steady demand for the foreseeable future that will maintain the value of homes. That’s my thought process anyways, and why I’m okay with buying at a seemingly very inflated price point.
OP
I totally understand the slippery slope there. Can’t underestimate the value of a free market.
That (ie the highlighted bit) kind of vanished once the .gov started messing with the free market. Maybe free market was always an illusion and that I am just seeing this with new eyes as I have gotten older.
But I entirely agree with your sentiment here.
As to housing .. things are nuts everywhere and esp worse in the west coast cities/suburbs. I want to buy a house but I am sitting this craziness out. I cannot justify or afford paying 25% higher prices compared to 2019 and overbid 75-100k on top, esp with mortgage rates going past 5%. Like everything else, there is always ebb and flow and right now is not a good time for me. I don't want to be "house poor".
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I think it was free at some point, just not within the lifetimes of much of anyone living today.
B00mb00m
The Church of Cutting Brakes of Atlas-Front Digs
Supporting Member
Ride of the Month Winner
OP
YOU KEEP GOVERNMENT CONTROL, OUT YO FUCKIN MOUTH!
OP
The hard part is that it may be years before the prices actually start falling. I didn’t want to miss an opportunity to buy while I can still afford it because I have a feeling a year from now I wouldn’t be able to qualify for anything at the rate things are going. Over the course of a month after getting pre approved, I watched prices noticeably increase and my borrowing power decrease by like 40k as interest rates rose. Most predictions I read showed prices will rise another 16- 20% this year and continue to rise for another 5 years in our area. Thats a long time wasting money on rent and missing out on gaining equity. We just made sure to find a house we will be happy in for a long time to come if prices do end up falling for a while.
I dont think we can sustain 5 more years of rising home prices. 6-10 months before the 08 crash they said the same. This time they aren’t playing the interest/lending game but are they over qualifying people? When it does decrease and folks wake up and owe 2 times the value of their home things will snow ball From there. That may be why they are raising interest rates trying to slow down the market. Nobody knows for sure. But those in real estate always over estimate the market forecast.
The Policy that needs to be added is some fiscal responsibility. Supply chain shortages and all the "free money" that was handed out is pushing this. The .gov needs to STOP spending money that they don't have as a start.
OP
From what I can see there doesn’t seem to be an over qualifying issue. It was very difficult for us to qualify but that’s also the nature of being self employed. Prices may not be able to climb at this rate for much longer, but I don’t see the bubble problem happening. With the current issue it seems more likely the prices will slowly parachute down as the supply chain recovers and we can build houses faster. In our area at least, I don’t see the demand to live here changing anytime soon.
OP
I wanted to buy in late 2020, but decided to wait a little given covid and uncertainty. Then 2021 came and the Fed QE began. Every house went up 70-100k more once interest rates went down and people started going nuts with borrowing since the money that really mattered to a lot of people is the monthly payment (just like what a lot of people do with new cars). Then, the overbidding craze started since a lot of regular people wanted to get into real estate investing/flipping. All of a sudden you started seeing "cash offers" from buyers so that you could stand out (in reality, most of these fronted by these new-age companies and you get a mortgage in the back end after paying them a hefty fee). Stock market went on a real ripper and people had more money. People started waiving all the contingencies just so that they could buy a house, no matter good or bad. Then a lot of people started taking HELOCs and investing that in a 2nd property that they could rent out. Then inflation started going up and even more people wanted to buy real estate as a hedge against that inflation. All of a sudden, we have this massive demand and the supply either stayed the same (or went down a little due to supply chain stuff on new builds).
It was (and still is) madness. I decided to stay out of it for now. Yes, there is a chance that this will go on for years and I would not be able to buy for that time. I don't consider renting as "wasting money" - right now, whatever I can afford with whatever downpayment I have, is more than the rent I pay. Renting gives me the freedom to pick and move as needed. Also I think that this madness will cool down as mortgage interest rates goes up and the buyer pool diminishes. I am not sure there will be a "crash" but there will be some softening and adjustment. The other scenario is that we end up like Canada. The Fed is playing a real time game of chess - there is no precedence to what has happened and they are also figuring it out as time goes inspite of what they say. I am not entirely confident that we can have a "soft landing" like they envision without taking us into a recession.
It is great that your financials allowed you to buy a house. As long as your job security is good and you plan to stay 5-7 years and you have not overextended yourself, you will very likely do just fine.
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